Indian plants -- who plan to begin production with 28 nano metre chips -- will take two to four years to get off the ground. By that time, in the fast changing world of chip making, the global market would have shifted to 22 nm.
Reliance Jio is close to finalising its contract with telecom gear maker Ericsson to roll out its 5G network in Mumbai and Maharashtra and Kolkata and West Bengal in the first phase of its launch in October. And it is going with Nokia for the lucrative Delhi circle, and Chennai, which includes Tamil Nadu, say sources aware of the development. This is the first time that Jio is opting for multiple vendors.
A few days ago, Reliance Retail surprised the market by acquiring the Campa brand from Delhi-based Pure Drinks Ltd for Rs 22 crore. A successful cola brand in the eighties, especially in North India, Campa Cola thrived when Coke exited India in the late seventies. When the Atlanta-based major returned and PepsiCo set base in India, it went down fighting.
'It leads to more investment, more money put in R&D, expansion and modernisation.'
Just a few weeks ago, Communications Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw did some tough talking with the senior managers of Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd, the ailing state-owned telecom service provider. The message was clear: They had to perform, quit by taking the voluntary retirement package or be compulsorily retired from service. The terse message from an otherwise polite and soft-spoken minister came just days after he announced a second and bigger package of Rs 1.64 trillion as part of a four-year turnaround plan for BSNL.
Reliance Jio's aggressive target to reach 100 million households through the launch of the 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) could make it one of the world's largest players in this space. But this also marks a change from its earlier strategy of offering fibre-to-the home (FTTH) broadband to households. Despite its best efforts, in two years Jio has been able to connect only 7 million households with FTTH, as permission for right of way for the last mile became a major impediment and the process of laying ducts for the roll-out was slow and cumbersome.
The merits and demerits of the telcos' 5G strategy however is clearly dependent on the financial muscle of players, reports Surajeet Das Gupta.
Telecom gear makers say will take six to eight months for the top 10 cities to have some reasonable coverage of 5G network services.
Foundries in Taiwan account for more than 75 per cent of the chips that mobile devices made in India need, according to estimates by the Indian Cellular and Electronics Association (ICEA), which represents global and domestic manufacturers. The number is slightly lower, 60 per cent, if one considers all chips -- those of consumer electronics, PCs, laptops, autos, etc. This ties in with the fact that foundries in Taiwan, led by TSMC, account for over 70 per cent of the world's microchip supply, according to estimates by Gartner.
How dominant are Chinese firms in India's sub-Rs 10,000 mobile device market? The question has become relevant as the government has been thinking of reserving this price segment for domestic players who have not been able to battle the Chinese onslaught. However, telecom firms and others are concerned that such a move could stymie the effort to build affordable 5G phones in the sub-Rs 10,000 category.
'By the end of 2022, we expect the installed base of 5G smartphones in India to reach 80-85 million.'
The government is busy strategising ways to revive the domestic mobile device industry as Chinese firms have grabbed a large chunk of the handset market. The idea is to minimise competition from Chinese mobile players in the entry level or sub-Rs 10,000 category, according to a senior government official familiar with the plans. While discussions on the strategy are on, there's a growing consensus within the government that the lower end of the market should be reserved only for the domestic players, the official said.
It came as a surprise to all stakeholders - competing telecom companies (telcos), most analysts and even the government's internal projections on revenues from the 5G auctions. Reliance Jio disrupted all calculations by paying a stiff Rs 40,000 crore to buy 10 MHz of spectrum in the 700-MHz band, globally considered a key band for efficient 5G service coverage, along with the default 3.5 GHz band and the ultra-high speed and low-latency millimetre band of 26 GHz band. So what made Jio pay almost 45 per cent of its total spend in this auction for the 700 MHz band - much more than what it rustled up even for the 3.5 GHz band?
A disagreement between mobile operators and device manufacturers over e-SIMs has reached the government with the Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI) asking the DoT to order handset manufacturers to introduce eSIMs, in addition to the physical SIM slot, in all smartphones costing over Rs 10,000. The reason is the unprecedented global shortage of semiconductors which has severely impacted the supply of SIM cards across the globe and pushed up the price by four to five times. The shortage is not likely to improve before 2024.
Reliance Jio's decision to acquire 700 MHz in combination with the possible use of an advanced standalone (SA) 5G network could give it an edge over its rivals, according to most analysts. The dissenters argue that the stiff price tag touching Rs 40,000 crore to grab 10 MHz of spectrum in 700 to provide coverage for its SA 5G network which offers ultra-low latency (unlike non-standalone or NSA), has a long way to go in India in terms of finding use cases that can be monetised. Globally, 700 MHz is a pivotal band which provides huge coverage, indoor penetration (especially useful in India where walls are thick) and is already considered by the European Union to be the 'pioneer band' for 5G, with 3.5 GHz and 26 GHz, both of which were auctioned in India recently.
With Chinese companies Huawei and ZTE excluded from participating in the 5G roll out, their absence leaves a vacuum in the market which will have to be filled by three vendors: Ericsson, Nokia and Samsung.
US hedge fund Tiger Global and Japanese investment giant SoftBank have trimmed their investments in Indian start-ups by over a third - from $3.8 billion in the second half of 2021 to a mere $1.08 billion in H1 2022, according to data from Venture Intelligence. While SoftBank's investments in India dropped from $1.9 billion in H2 2021 by more than a fifth to only $0.33 billion in H1 2022, that of Tiger Global fell from $1.92 to $0.74 billion in the same period. Private equity (PE) fund trackers point out that this year most of the deals that Tiger Global has invested in are in the early stage (up to series D), and only a few are in the series E and above.
Apple's three vendors in the country have hit the milestone of creating 30,000 new direct jobs since the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme for mobile devices kicked off in April 2021. Based on the government's estimate that one direct job in the electronics industry helps to generate three indirect ones, Apple's vendors, Foxconn Hon Hai, Wistron and Pegatron, are close to creating 100,000 direct and indirect jobs. The direct jobs that the vendors have created account for a fourth of Apple's commitment to generate 60 per cent of the new direct jobs out of the 200,000 jobs targeted by the government under the PLI scheme within five years.
Seven of Bollywood's big stars (Akshay Kumar, Ranveer Singh, Ajay Devgn, Varun Dhawan, Saif Ali Khan, John Abraham and Shahid Kapoor), who had 10 movies released with a collective budget of Rs 1,100 crore since December, could rustle up only around a third of that money at the box office.
Telcos participating in the upcoming auctions at the end of July say they expect only a fourth of the value of spectrum on offer to be sold. The government has put Rs 4.3 trillion of spectrum up for sale at the base price across seven bands including for 5G. An executive of a leading telco said he estimates that mobile operators collectively would buy spectrum of only around Rs 1.1 trillion.
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